The South African National Biodiversity Institute has already documented how the tree aloes of the dry west of southern Africa are dying out in the north of their range near Brandberg in the Nama Desert and thriving in the south near Nieuwoudtville in the Northern Cape. This suggests that the ideal conditions in which this desert plant thrives are shifting south. This correlates neatly with the predictions emerging from climate change modelling, suggesting that the desert is pushing south into wine growing country.
For the Cape’s vineyards, this poses a problem as the winter rainfall 'envelope' in which they grow is already at the southern end of the African continent. If their climate envelope shifts further south and the desert presses in from the north, the prime 'terroir' of the Cape will shrink considerably.
The cooler regions of the Agulhas plain may offer some respite to the shifting vineyard footprint, but development would jeopardise the extremely fragile natural environments in this area.
However Schultz believes that South Africa, along with California and Australia, is better equipped to adapt to shifting climate than Old World producers. Already considerable irrigation infrastructure is in place, and with fewer people in the decision making chain, the industry can push through the kind of legislation which will allow for adaptation. The recent policy change which now provides for the removal of alcohol from wines, previously prohibited by legislation, is one example of how quickly the Cape wine industry can adapt.
Water shortages remain the greatest threat to the security of the wine industry. Increasing demand for existing water resources along with bullish urbanisation, a lack of scope for dam developing and predicted increase in frequency and intensity of drought, will further stretch existing resources.
The status quo report predicts that '(t)he combination of increasing water scarcity and rising temperatures will regularly affect sectors of the economy that are particularly dependent on ecosystem goods and services.'
Schultz predicts that in the struggle between urban and agricultural demands for water, the urban environment will win as municipalities cut off water to farmers to meet growing demands of the metropole. Schultz said that as much as 81 percent of premium wine growing vineyards in the US will be lost due to water shortages.
Ending on a positive note, Shultz said that consumer tastes also change over time. Hopefully the demands of the global wine palate will keep in step with changing wine flavours as climatic conditions shift in wine producing regions the world over.
(*) A Status Quo, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of the Physical and Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change in the Western Cape was issued by the Western Cape government in June 2005 and was compiled by specialist departments at the University of Cape Town, the CSIR and the South African National Biodiversity Institute.